Sunday 16 December 2012

COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 17/12/2012


COPPER

POSSIBILITY 

Copper prices may remain sideways to lower and can test 441 levels.

Sustainable trading below 441 might pull the market further down towards 437 levels.

ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY

Only a daily close above 451 levels would result into positive movement.

SHORT TERM
SUPPORT      : Rs. 441/437
RESISTANCE: Rs. Rs448/451.

TREND TYPE
Sideways (Rise Sell).


  NICKEL

POSSIBILITY 

As expected, prices tested  its resistance of 972.

Any sustainable trading above Rs972 levels will attract further higher moves towards 990 levels.   

ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY

Sustainable trade below 950 would pull the prices towards Rs 935 Levels.

SHORT TERM
SUPPORT      : Rs. 950/935
RESISTANCE: Rs.   975/990

TREND TYPE
Sideways (Dip Buy)  








Friday 30 November 2012

Euro-Area Unemployment Rises to Record 11.7% on Recession


The euro-area jobless rate rose to a record in October as the fiscal crisis and tougher austerity measures deepened the region’s economic woes.
Unemployment in the 17-nation single-currency bloc increased to 11.7 percent from 11.6 percent in September, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995 and is in line with the median estimate of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflation eased to 2.2 percent in November, the slowest rate in almost two years, separate data showed.
The euro-area economy has shrunk for two successive quarters, forcing companies to cut costs to help weather the downturn, and economists foresee a further contraction of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the median of 25 forecasts in a separate Bloomberg survey showed. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this week forecast contractions of 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent this year and next.
“The trend remains a gradual upward trend before we can hope for some stabilization in the second half of next year,” said Frederik Ducrozet, senior euro-area economist at Credit Agricole in Paris. “There’s no escaping the fact the unemployment rate will rise again in the next year; it’s a lagging indicator.”

Monday 19 November 2012

POSITIONAL CALL

BUY CRUDE ABOVE 4920 SL 4850 TRGT 5040, 5140, 5200.

RIDHI BROKERS.

Monday 5 November 2012

Good Evening Guyz. From today onwards the MCX timing is Extended till 11:55 PM.

Thursday 18 October 2012

Thursday 11 October 2012

Sunday 7 October 2012

Bullion Updates

SILVER will touch 33.70$ Next Week.Silver looking Bearish Next Week. GOLD if Break $ 1765 Then Trgt $1749.

Ridhi Brokers.

Wednesday 26 September 2012

Thursday 20 September 2012

Natural Gas Inventory

USD NATURAL GAS STORAGE:

Actual: 67B, Forecast: 66B, Prevoius: 27B

Commodity Alert

Today’s US Economic Data 
6:00pm Current Account Forecast-126B, Previous-137B 
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases Forecast37.3B, Previous9.3B 
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index Forecast38, Previous37.

Monday 13 August 2012

Commodity Updates:

GOLD UPDATES

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
GOLD SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
SUPPORTRESISTANCE
129682.0029924.00
229598.0030082.00
329440.0030166.00

Wednesday 18 July 2012

COMMODITY CALLS

SELL COPPER AT 425 SL 427 TRGT 422.50, 420.30.

Trade Safely Ben Benarke Speach at 7:30.

Abhishek Maheshwari
Ridhi Brokers
(Managing Director) 

Thursday 12 July 2012

Wednesday 11 July 2012


Best Time Spend With my client Virat Kohli.

Abhishek Maheshwari.
Ridhi Brokers
( Managing Director )

Thursday 5 July 2012

Commodity Calls:

Buy Gold At 29720 Sl 29590 Trgt 29760, 29800, 29850.

Buy Zinc Above 104 Sl 103.10 Trgt 104.8, 105.6, 106.2.

For any query Contact
ridhibrokers@gmail.com
# 09716045626.

Monday 2 July 2012

Good Morning,

Day by  day the Volatality of the market increases, so maintain stoploss and trade safely.

Abhishek Maheshwari.
Managing Director
( Ridhi Brokers )  Invest Money, Earn Money.

Friday 29 June 2012

Gd Evening to all.

Today the Market is really very volatile due to USDINR. So, kindly trade carefully n maintain stoploss.

Abhishek Maheshwari
( Managing Director )
Ridhi Brokers.

Wednesday 27 June 2012

Pivot Levels

GOLD : R1- 30125, R2- 30254, R3- 30373,   S1- 29878, S2- 29760, S3- 29631. PP- 30007

SILVER : R1- 53247, R2- 53727, R3- 54119,  S1- 52375, S2- 51983, S3- 51503 PP- 52855

CRUDE : R1- 4648, R2- 4697, R3- 4756,   S1- 4540, S2- 4481, S3- 4432.  PP- 4589

A very Warm Good Morning to my all viewers. Today the trend of the Market is Consolidate n Volatality is quit high n the reason are USD GDP GROWTH DATA and USD CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DATA.

So, guys trade carefully n maintain stoploss.

Abhishek Maheshwari
Managing Director
( Ridhi Brokers )

Commodity Calls

BUY CRUDE AT 4555 SL 4520 TRGT 4580, 4600.

SELL SILVER AT 53000 SL 53350 TRGT 52900, 52700, 52500. 

Euro May Fall as Slowing German Inflation Drives ECB Rate Cut Bets

The preliminary set of June’s German Consumer Price Index figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the annualized inflation rate to tick lower for the second consecutive month to print at 1.8 percent, the lowest since December 2010. The outcome may prove to weigh on the Euro as being inflationary pressure against a backdrop of slumping regional economic growth opens the door for building ECB rate cut expectations.
Separately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to address the Bundestag (lower house of the legislature) on her goals for the two-day EU leaders’ summit due to begin on Thursday. Concrete policy proposals are unlikely to emerge. Still, traders will be keen to gauge the Chancellor’s tone amid concerns that Germany represents the most significant obstacle forging a Eurozone-wide debt obligation-sharing scheme meant to boost confidence and help arrest the region’s debt crisis.
The US Dollar was little-changed against its top counterparts in overnight trade. The New Zealand Dollar underperformed, slumping as much as 0.2 percent on average, after the May Trade Balance report showed that the year-to-date deficit widened to -NZ$805 million. That marks the second consecutive month in negative territory and the largest shortfall since November 2009.

Monday 25 June 2012

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline Before House Sales Data

U.S. stock-index futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend last week’s decline, before a report that may show growth in sales of new houses slowed last month.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) declined in German trading. Intel Corp. (INTC) lost 0.7 percent after Evercore Partners Inc. said the company may see weaker demand in the third quarter. Grupo Modelo SAB surged 14 percent after a person familiar with the matter said Anheuser-Busch InBev NV may buy the company.
S&P 500 Index futures expiring in September dropped 0.8 percent to 1,316.9 at 6:47 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge gained 0.7 percent on June 22 as bank downgrades from Moody’s Investors Service proved no worse than the company had warned about earlier. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 83 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,485 today.

“Sentiment does appear to have turned in the U.S. in terms of the economy and what’s going to be needed to support it,” said Ioan Smith, a director at Knight Capital Europe Ltd. in London. “Every single data point in the U.S. will now be important because people will start to price in greater expectations of another round of quantitative easing.”
New-house sales in the world’s biggest economy rose less than 1 percent to a 346,000 annual pace in May, according to the Bloomberg survey median. They increased 3.3 percent a month earlier. The Commerce Department will release the data at 10 a.m. in Washington

Other reports this week may show that household spending stalled in May, while the slowdown in job creation damped consumer confidence.
The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent last week, snapping a two-week rally, after the Federal Reserve cut its economic forecast and a bear market in commodity prices pulled down energy shares

Soros Call

European Union leaders will gather for a summit June 28-29 in Brussels to debate measures for tackling the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
Billionaire investor George Soros urged Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency.
U.S. financial companies declined in German trading. Bank of America, the second-largest American bank, retreated 1 percent to $7.86, while Goldman Sachs fell 1 percent to $92.72.
Intel slid 0.7 percent to $26.75 after Patrick Wang, an analyst at Evercore wrote in a note that “negative feedback” on the company may lead to weaker demand, affecting second-half earnings. The third quarter may be “sub-seasonal” for semiconductor companies.

Grupo Modelo jumped 14 percent to $7.84 after a person familiar with the matter said AB InBev is close to buying the remainder of the Mexican company for more than $12 billion. AB InBev, the world’s largest brewer, has a non-controlling 50 percent stake in Corona owner Modelo.

Tuesday 19 June 2012

Thursday 14 June 2012

COMMODITY TRADING CALLS:

SELL COPPER AT AROUND 415.50 - 416.50 SL 418.50 TRGT 412.50.

BUY CRUDE AT AROUND 4685 SL 4660 TRGT 4725.

Tuesday 12 June 2012

COMMODITY TRADING CALLS

POSITIONAL CALL: 

SELL GOLD AT AROUND 30050 SL 30250 TRGT 29900, 29750.

SELL COPPER AT AROUND 415 SL 418.50 TRGT 410 , 408.

For any Query Contact on:

ridhibrokers@gmail.com
# 08563898578.

Monday 11 June 2012

Commodity Trading Tips

BUY CRUDE AT AROUND 4735 SL 4695 TRGT 4775, 4805.

BUY SILVER AT AROUND 54650 SL 54500 TRGT 54900, 55100.

Sunday 10 June 2012

Gold records 2nd biggest fall in 2012



Gold records 2nd biggest fall in 2012


Gold tumbles by Rs 700 to Rs 29,500 per 10 grams in the national capital due to heavy sell-off by stockists triggered by a meltdown in global markets.


Gold, silver rebound on global cues


Both the precious metals, gold and silver, staged a strong comeback and recovered sharply on the bullion market on fresh buying by stockists after a steep fall in the previous session amid firming global trend.

Ridhi Brokers (Managing Director)


Spanish, Greek Turmoil May Trigger Downgrades: Moody’s


An exit of Greece from Europe’s monetary union and Spain’s need for financial support to capitalize its banks may trigger additional credit-rating downgrades in the region, Moody’s Investors Service said.
All sovereign ratings in the region, including the Aaa of nations such as Germany, would need to be reviewed if Greece left the 17-nation currency union, New York-based Moody’s said in a statement yesterday. The credit standing of Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain would deteriorate as the risk of a Greece exit rose, the company said.
“The worst-case scenario is a Greek exit that destabilizes the European economy, and that feeds into further rounds of challenges,” said Gregory Hess, an economics professor atClaremont McKenna College in Claremont, California. “In turn it would contribute to a ratcheting down of global economic activity.”
Spain’s banking crisis is mostly specific to that country and wouldn’t need to be a source of contagion to others in the region except for Italy, which also has a rising funding reliance on theEuropean Central Bank through its banks, Moody’s said. Spain is preparing to become the fourth euro-area nation to seek emergency assistance as the currency bloc’s finance chiefs plan weekend talks on potential aid to shore up the nation’s lenders.

Conference Call

ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said yesterday that a Spanish request is “awaited” and will be “exclusively directed at the recapitalization of banks.” The bid may come as soon as tomorrow when finance ministers hold a conference call at about 1:30 p.m., according to a person familiar with the plans who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential.
The prospect of action underscores officials’ concerns that Greek elections on June 17 may unsettle investors as Spain struggles to persuade markets it can protect troubled banks and finance its budget deficit. The country’s credit rating was cut three grades by Fitch Ratings yesterday hours after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said for the first time that he is discussing with European leaders how to help Spanish banks.
Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria declined to comment when asked at a briefing yesterday whether Spain was seeking a rescue. She reiterated that the government will wait until getting the reports before making a decision.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged euro-area policy makers to strengthen the monetary union and share risks as they seek to restore the health of the financial system.

Bank Repair

“The heart of European bank repair lies in Europe,” Lagarde said yesterday in remarks prepared for a speech in New York. “That means more Europe, not less.”
European Union President Herman van Rompuy is drafting proposals on a “fiscal union” that will be discussed by European leaders at a Brussels summit on June 28-29.
A bailout for Spain, reeling from a recession and the bursting of a property bubble, may dwarf previous rescues in the effort to stem the turmoil that began with Greece’s disclosure in 2009 that its finances were in worse shape than previously known.
Since then, European governments and the IMF have made 386 billion euros ($480 billion) in loan pledges to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Spain’s economy is more than twice the size of the three countries combined. JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist David Mackie said on May 30 that aid for the Spanish government and banks could total 350 billion euros.

Spanish Bonds

Spain’s 10-year bond yields rose to 6.24 percent yesterday from 6.09 percent the previous day, more than double its 3 percent record low in 2005. The euro lost 0.7 percent to $1.2487 at 6:47 p.m. in Madrid.
Fitch downgraded Spain to BBB, within two steps of non- investment grade. It said the cost to the state of shoring up banks may amount to as much as 100 billion euros in the worst case, compared with its previous estimate of 30 billion euros, as the country will remain in a recession next year.
Standard & Poor’s said yesterday that its “base-case scenario” has Spanish banks showing loan losses of 80 billion euros to 112 billion euros this year and next. Fitch said government support of 60 billion euros for the banks would help push the nation’s debt load to 95 percent of gross domestic product in 2015. Spain went into the crisis with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 36 percent in 2007.

China May Export Growth Tops Estimates As U.S. Demand Rises

China's May exports and imports increased at more than double the pace analysts estimated as trade with the U.S. rebounded, supporting growth in the world’s second-biggest economy as domestic demand slows.



Overseas shipments climbed 15.3 percent from a year earlier to a record, the Beijing-based customs bureau said today, exceeding all 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports rose 12.7 percent compared with estimates for a 5.5 percent gain. The trade surplus also beat projections.
The data indicate Europe’s debt woes have yet to produce a collapse in world trade on the scale of the 2008 global recession, even as Spain’s request for a bank bailout threatens to deepen the crisis. Stronger exports may prompt Premier Wen Jiabao to be more measured in rolling out stimulus even as weaker-than-estimated output and retail sales data yesterday bolster the case for loosening.
“This shows it’s not all doom and gloom,” Song Seng Wun, an economist with CIMB Research Pte in Singapore, said after the trade figures were released. “Growth momentum may be slowing, but it’s not about to crash.”
China cut interest rates three days ago as the government counters the effects of Europe’s debt crisis and seeks to engineer a resurgence in an economy that JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts will grow at the slowest pace since 1999.

Output Moderates

Inflation in May was a lower-than-estimated 3 percent and producer prices dropped for a third straight month, statistics bureau data yesterday showed. Industrial production growth was below 10 percent for a second month, the first time that’s happened in three years.
Retail sales, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, rose the least in almost six years, excluding the January and February holiday months. Fixed-asset investment, excluding rural households and not adjusted for inflation, rose 20.1 percent in the first five months, the weakest increase for a January-May period since 2001, according to previously released data.
“These data should defeat any remaining complacency that the policy response has been adequate to maintain steady growth,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said yesterday after the statistics bureau reports. “More dramatic easing, especially in housing and local government financing vehicles is urgently needed and necessary to avoid a hard landing in the Chinese economy.”

Higher Exports

Shen, who previously worked for the European Central Bank, said he expected at least one more reduction in interest rates and three cuts in banks’ reserve requirements this year.
China, the world’s biggest exporter, has increased foreign sales and purchases every month since the end of 2009, after a year of falling trade during the depths of the global recession.
May exports grew the most since October, excluding New-Year holiday distortions, and compared with the median estimate for a 7.1 percent gain. Sales to the U.S. jumped 23 percent from a year earlier, the biggest increase this year, and shipments to the European Union rose for the first time in three months.
Imports rebounded from a 0.3 percent rise in April, with purchases from the U.S. close to the highest on record. Crude oil imports rose to a record, boosted by restocking as international prices dropped.

Global Demand

The increase in China’s exports and imports adds to evidence that some Asian economies are weathering weaker global demand. Australia’s trade deficit narrowed in April as iron-ore and coal shipments increased, the Bureau of Statistics reported on June 8. Singapore’s April exports rebounded by more than analysts estimated.
China’s trade surplus in the first five months surged 65 percent from a year earlier to $37.9 billion, according to customs bureau data. That may intensify calls from the nation’s biggest trading partners for faster appreciation of the yuan after gains stalled amid Europe’s debt crisis.
The yuan has declined about 1.2 percent this year after a 4.7 percent rise last year. It closed at 6.3705 per dollar on June 8. David Lipton, the International Monetary Fund’s first deputy managing director, said on June 8 the yuan is still undervalued, although to a lesser extent than previously.
The U.S. last month urged China to strengthen the yuan, while declining to brand the nation a currency manipulator. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney has said that, if elected, he will make such a designation on his first day in office.
The better-than-estimated performance of China’s exports reflects external improvements in the first quarter which won’t be sustained into the third quarter given weakening data out of the U.S. and Europe, said Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays Capital who formerly worked for the World Bank.
Chang estimates China’s full-year growth at 8.1 percent, down from 9.2 percent in 2011. JPMorgan sees a 7.7 percent pace.

Friday 8 June 2012

European Crisis


Exports are under pressure because of the crisis in Europe. The 17-nation euro area will shrink 0.1 percent in 2012 and expand 0.9 percent in 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on May 22, when it trimmed its forecast. By contrast, the OECD raised projections for U.S. growth, to 2.4 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent next year.
Still, “the situation in Europe poses significant risks to the U.S. financial system and economy and must be monitored closely,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday in testimony to Congress in Washington.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is cooling. It grew 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from a year earlier, the fifth straight deceleration. The country yesterday cut borrowing costs for the first time since 2008 and loosened controls on banks’ lending and deposit rates, stepping up efforts to combat a deepening slowdown as Europe’s debt crisis worsens.
DuPont Co., the most valuable U.S. chemicals producer, is among companies watching the situation in Europe. DuPont’s first-quarter earnings exceeded analysts’ estimates as its agriculture unit benefited from rising corn-seed demand in Brazil and an early spring in the U.S. and Europe.
DuPont Co.
In “Europe the macro trends are not good right now,” Nicholas Fanandakis, chief financial officer of Wilmington, Delaware-based DuPont, said in a June 6 conference call with analysts. “The economy is in a state of flux. Where it’s going to come out in the end is anyone’s guess.” Even so, the picture is mixed, with parts of the agriculture business “very strong” and segments such as “the industrial side not as strong an environment,” he said.
The recent pickup in the value of the U.S. currency may make America’s exports less competitive. The dollar has climbed about 5 percent from this year’s low in February against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the country’s biggest trading partners, according to Federal Reserve data.
The trade deficit with China remains a thorny issue as the U.S. presses the Asian country to allow the yuan to rise against the dollar.
The Treasury Department will continue to “closely monitor” the pace of yuan appreciation, according to its semi- annual report to Congress on exchange-rate policies released May 25. It will also push for “policy changes that yield greater exchange-rate flexibility,” the report said.

Trade Gap In U.S. Narrows As Imports Drop More Than Exports


The trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed in April as a drop in imports overshadowed the first decline in exports in five months.
The gap shrank 4.9 percent to $50.1 billion from $52.6 billion in March that was higher than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The medianforecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists called for the deficit to shrink to $49.5 billion. Both exports and imports fell from the prior month’s record highs.
Stagnation in Europe and cooling growth in China may restrain exports of American-made goods, which have beencontributing to growth in the world’s largest economy. At the same time, domestic demand will help sustain the pace of imports, making further improvement in the trade balance more difficult.
“The contribution from trade will be fairly neutral over the year,”Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale inNew York, said before the report. “We could see a slowdown but not an outright collapse in exports as global growth slows.”
The trade deficit was projected to narrow from an initially reported $51.8 billion for March, according to the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from gaps of $53 billion to $45.5 billion.
Stock-index futures held losses after weaker economic data inEurope added to concern about a global slowdown. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September declined 0.3 percent to 1,305.6 at 8:33 a.m. in New York.

U.S. Stock Futures Fall On Europe Concern, Commodities


U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will trim its biggest weekly gain in 2012, as commodities tumbled and disappointing economic data in Europe added to concern about a global slowdown.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) dropped more than 1 percent. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), the world’s largest restaurant chain, retreated 2.9 percent as its May sales trailed analysts’ estimates. Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) gained 0.8 percent after agreeing to sell its pipeline interests to Global Infrastructure Partners for $4.08 billion.
S&P 500 futures expiring in September fell 0.3 percent to 1,305.9 at 8:38 a.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge has risen 2.9 percent this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 46 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,360 today.
Equity futures joined a global slump as German exports dropped in April for the first time this year as weaker global growth curbed demand. French business confidence and Italian output also declined. The trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed in April as a drop in imports overshadowed the first decline in exports in five months.
Investors also watched Europe’s attempts to tame its debt crisis. Spain is poised to become the fourth of the 17 euro-area countries to require emergency assistance as the currency bloc’s finance chiefs plan weekend talks on a potential aid request to shore up the nation’s lenders.

Weekly Advance

The S&P 500 is headed for its biggest weekly advance since December 23 as China cut itsinterest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said officials stand ready to act as the euro region’s outlook worsens. Most stocks fell yesterday as an early rally fizzled after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank will assess the economy before deciding on whether more stimulus is needed.
Commodity shares declined today amid concern that a global slowdown could reduce demand for raw materials. Freeport- McMoRan, the world’s biggest publicly traded copper miner, dropped 1.5 percent to $33.08. Newmont Mining, the largest U.S. gold producer, slid 1 percent to $50.19.
McDonald’s dropped 2.9 percent to $85.85. Sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 3.3 percent globally last month, falling short of analysts’ estimates, as sales stalled in Japan and China.
Chesapeake Energy advanced 0.8 percent to $18. The transaction will allow Chesapeake, the energy explorer facing a $22 billion cash shortfall because of falling natural-gas prices, to cut its previously budgeted capital expenditure plan by about $3 billion, the company said in a statement today.

Technical Outlook - Energy and Base Metals


Crude oil prices  are likely to remain sideways to
bearish  as the 10 period MA slope  has turned  down and
MACD is in negative territory. Key resistance for the day is
at $85 while support is at $81.50 at Nymex May contract. At
MCX prices  are having key resistance at  4785 for the day
and support is at 4580 for May contract.

Copper  prices  are expected to  remain  sideways to
bearish as  the 10  period MA slope  has turned  slightly flat
and MACD  is in  negative territory while RSI is pointing
down. LME copper prices are having  resistance at $7520
and support at $7250. At MCX prices are having resistance
at 417 and support at 407 for the day for June contract.

Fundamental Outlook


Crude oil prices are likely to remain bearish following Bernanke testimony
which provided no hints of further stimulus to the US economy. Also weak
economic data from US will likely weigh on its prices for short term.

Copper prices  may  remain  bearish  amidst  EU region concerns whose
adverse affect were highlighted in Bernanke testimony and no hints of QE3 by
the Fed.

Market Roundup - Energy and Base Metals


Crude futures declined Thursday after a wobbly session of slight gains and
losses as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress,
stealing the spotlight away from a surprise interest-rate cut in China that had
fueled a rally earlier in the session. China rate cut provided support but
Bernanke comments poured cold water on initial rally and prices came down.
Copper rose on Thursday  after China's government agreed to cut
benchmark lending and deposit rates for the first time since the global financial
crisis, though comments by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman that dashed
hopes for imminent monetary easing later limited gains.     Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke told Congress the bank was ready to shield the economy if financial
troubles mount, but his testimony was disappointing for metals markets as it
gave no clues about further monetary easing.

Technical Outlook - Precious Metal


Gold prices are expected to remain sideways to bearish
as the 10 period MA slope has turned down and MACD is in
the positive zone. Comex prices are having key resistance
at $1600 and support at $1550 for the day (June). At MCX
prices are having resistance at 29600 and support at 29000
for the day for June contract.

Silver-prices at Comex are likely to remain sideways as
the 10 period MA slope is flat, MACD is in positive territory
and RSI is pointing  up. Comex silver prices are having
resistance at $28.85 and support at $28 for May contract. At
MCX prices are having resistance at 54800 and support at
53800 and break below this will  likely  take prices down
towards 53000

Fundamental Roundup - Precious Metal

Gold prices are expected to  remain  sideways after 
yesterday’s Bernanke testimony which  provided no hints of 
monetary stimulus to the US economy. Prices have been 
mainly rising in recent sessions following expectations of 
QE3 but all hopes became dull after Bernanke speech.

Market Roundup - Precious Metals


Gold futures fell Thursday breaking a two session
winning streak  after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke’s testimony to Congress showed the Fed stood
ready to act in the event that Europe’s crisis worsens, but
offered no hint of what the central bank might do at its next
policy meeting.


Key News highlights:
 Federal Reserve Chairman Testimony– The Federal
Reserve  in his testimony said that the Federal
Reserve is  ready to act to protect the financial
system and the economy in the event that financial
stresses from the European crisis escalate.  The
situation in Europe poses significant risks to the U.S.
financial system, he said. Fed did not give hint about
what the Fed might do at its next policy meeting on
June 19 and 20. On Wednesday, several key Fed
officials said they were open to more easing if
warranted.  Overall the testimony was in line with
expectations.
 China  Rate  Cut- China's central bank on Thursday
lowered one-year lending and deposit rates by 0.25
percentage point, effective from Friday, and moved
to allow rates to float more freely, in a bid to support
economic growth and advance reform of the financial
system.  In effect, maximum deposit rates will rise
slightly after the changes, and minimum lending
rates will fall sharply. The move will likely reduce
concerns related to China slowdow

Thursday 7 June 2012

Evening Support and Resistance of Commodity


07/06/2012
Commodity

         Expiry  Open   High   Low     P.M     S1        S2       S3      R1      R2       R3 Short Term
Gold   4'Aug 30070 30070 29783 29810 29760 29670 29610 29880 29950 30040    Bullish
Silver  5'July 55700 55700 55162 55243 54820 54440 54080 55600 55980 56210   Bullish
Copper 29'June 411.75 412.35 406.9 406.9 405 402 399 410 413 415                      Bearish
Nickel 29' June 896 902.6 888.2 899.5 887 876 868 908 916 925                              Bearish
Lead 29'June 106.1 106.3 105.15 105.75 105 104 102 107 108 109                          Bearish
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Friday 1 June 2012

U.S. Employers Add 69,000 Jobs, Fewer Than Forecast


American employers in May added the fewest workers in a year and the unemployment rateunexpectedly increased as job-seekers re-entered the workforce, further evidence that the labor-market recovery is stalling.
Payrolls climbed by 69,000 last month, less than the most- pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, after a revised 77,000 gain in April that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate called for a 150,000 May advance. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent, while hours worked declined.
Stocks and Treasury yields plunged as the figures showed a looming recession in the euro area and slower growth in Chinaand Brazil are taking a toll on the U.S. Bigger job and wage gains are needed to jumpstart a self-sustaining increase in hiring and consumer spending.
“The labor market is clearly deteriorating,” Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Albany, New York-based Hugh Johnson Advisors LLC, whose payrolls projection of 75,000 was the closest to the May reading among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Confidence in the economy is declining. Businesses are extremely reluctant to add workers when there’s so much uncertainty.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 1.5 percent to 1,291.34 at 9:41 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.5 percent, from 1.56 percent late yesterday, after reaching a record low of 1.4387 percent.

Economists’ Estimates

Estimates of the 87 economists surveyed ranged from increases of 75,000 to 195,000 after a previously reported 115,000 rise in April. Revisions subtracted a total of 49,000 jobs to payrolls in March and April.
The figures follow data earlier today showing the global economy is struggling as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis roils financial markets.
A measure of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro fell to a three-year low, while measures of the industry in China, India,South Korea and Taiwan also weakened. The Markit Economics final index of U.S. manufacturing decreased to 54 in May from 56 in April, the London-based group said today. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Republicans seized on the numbers to criticize PresidentBarack Obama’s economic policies five months before Americans head to the polls to either re-elect Obama or choose presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
“Too many Americans remain out of work and because of the president’s policies, our nation’s small businesses remain hesitant to hire and reluctant to grow,” House Majority LeaderEric Cantor, a Republican from Virginia, said in a statement.

Auto Bailouts

Obama supporters also expressed concern. “Absolutely nothing good to be said” about the data, Steven Rattner, who helped lead the administration’s bailouts of General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, said in a message on Twitter.
The report shows the Federal Reserve is making little progress toward its objective to bring the unemployment rate to a range of 5.2 percent to 6 percent. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernankehas said a lack of progress toward that goal would lead the central bank to consider additional easing.
The unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 8.1 percent, according to the survey median. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 8 percent to 8.2 percent. Unemployment has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest such stretch since monthly records began in 1948.

Participation Rate

The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, rose to 63.8 percent from 63.6 percent.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 82,000 after a revised gain of 87,000. They were projected to rise by 164,000, the survey showed.
“The U.S. economy is recovering but at a stubbornly slow pace,” Carl Camden, president and chief financial officer at staffing provider Kelly Services Inc., said on a May 9 conference call. “Weakening European economies have shaken confidence here in the U.S. business, consumers and investors remain cautious.” Still, with demand increasing for skilled workers, “we remain optimistic about 2012,” he said.
Factory employment increased by 12,000, less than the survey forecast of a 15,000 increase.
General Motors Co. is among companies boosting payrolls. The world’s biggest automaker said last month it will add 600 employees to a second shift at an assembly plant in Lansing, Michigan, according to the Detroit News.

Service Employment

Employment at service-providers increased 84,000 in May. Construction companies cut 28,000 jobs, the most in two years, and retailers boosted payrolls by 2,300.
“I have been searching relentlessly and I can’t find anything,” said Dexter Favors, 57, of Atlanta. Favors has been out of work for three years, though his wife is employed. “It is kind of rough right now because she is pulling the load.”
Favors, who worked last as a grocery store department manager and is an Air Force veteran, said he has put out around 80 applications for work and continues to search.
Government payrolls declined by 13,000.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent, today’s report showed. Compared with May of last year, earnings climbed 1.7 percent, the smallest increase since December 2010.
The average work week for all workers fell to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours.

Underemployment Rate

The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- increased to 14.8 percent from 14.5 percent.
The report also showed an increase in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose as a percentage of all jobless, to 42.8 percent from 41.3 percent.
Faster economic growth would help lay the groundwork for more hiring. Gross domestic product climbed at a 1.9 percent annual rate from January through March, down from a 2.2 percent prior estimate, reflecting smaller gains in inventories and bigger government cutbacks, according to revised Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The report also showed corporate profits rose at the slowest pace in more than three years and smaller wage gains at the end of 2011.
The pace of growth has been “disappointing” and “the headwinds retarding recovery are well known,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said this week. He reiterated that he expects growth of about 2.4 percent over the next four quarters and saidEurope’s sovereign debt crisis poses a downside risk to the outlook.
Today’s figures may put more pressure on the Fed to take further steps to boost the economy after their current maturity extension program, known as Operation Twist, expires at the end of June.

Consumer Spending, Incomes In U.S. Increased In April


U.S. consumer spending rose in April, a sign that households are supporting the economy as the labor market seeks to gain momentum.
Purchases increased 0.3 percent after a revised 0.2 percent gain the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.3 percent increase in so-called nominal sales. Incomes rose 0.2 percent, less than forecast.
Households have managed to stretch their budgets to propel growth in the U.S., with consumer spending making up 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, households may have trouble sustaining the pace of spending in the future until a stronger labor market leads to bigger income gains.
“Income growth isn’t sufficient enough to really prop up spending,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in purchases. “Match this with the weak payrolls data and this really suggests that spending is going to continue to lose momentum amid a soft and fragile economy.”
In a separate report the Labor Department said today American employers in May added the smallest number of workers in a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased as job- seekers re-entered the workforce. Payrolls climbed by 69,000 last month, less than the most-pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, the Labor Department said. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent, while hours worked declined.

Stock Futures

Stock futures fell after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2 percent to 1,283.70 at 8:40 a.m. in New York. The benchmark Treasury 10-year note yield fell nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 1.47 percent at 8:35 a.m. New York time.
Projections for spending ranged from gains of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. The Commerce Department revised the March spending figure from a previously reported 0.3 percent increase.
Incomes increased in April after a 0.4 percent gain the prior month. Economists forecast incomes would rise 0.3 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. Wages and salaries rose 0.2 percent in April after 0.3 percent a month earlier.
Adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which renders the figure used to calculate gross domestic product, it rose 0.3 percent.

Seasonal Events

Seasonal events may have pulled some sales into the previous month. The average temperature in March was the warmest on record in the U.S., and Easter fell on April 8 compared with April 24 the year before.
Inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods, including automobiles, increased 0.8 percent in April after a 1.2 percent decline the previous month. Outlays for non-durable goods, which include gasoline, rose 0.2 percent in April.
Households stepped up their purchases last quarter to bolster the expansion. Their spending grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate, the most since the final three months of 2010, according to data from the Commerce Department.
To maintain spending at last quarter’s pace, Americans dipped into more of their savings. The savings rate dropped to 3.6 percent, the lowest level since the last three months of 2007, from 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Today’s income report showed the April savings rate dropped to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.
Cooling inflation could also help take pressure off Americans’ wallets. A measure of prices tied to consumer spending was unchanged in April. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.1 percent.

Overall Economy

“The overall economy is still our customers’ main concern,” Bill Simon, the U.S. chief executive officer of Wal- Mart Stores Inc. said during a May 17 during earnings call. “In particular, they remain concerned about job security or the availability of jobs, followed by gas and energy prices and rising food costs.”